Evolution of Quantum Risks of Extreme Temperature Loads on Buildings

The article deals with current problems of high-rise construction adaptation to the global climate change realities. Presents the high-resolution statistical studies results of previously unknown regularities of fluctuations intensity evolution of maximum and minimum temperatures in the period from 1973 to 2009. Shows the methodology elements of events statistical analysis from the extreme temperature loads realisation. Presents the forecasting results in the implementation of the maximum and minimum daily temperatures for the period of the buildings entire life cycle. These estimates are intended to account for extreme temperature loads in the design of high-rise buildings and engineering systems forming microclimate of premises. The paper first presents obtained by the authors and previously unknown quantum regularities of the air temperature variations in the atmosphere surface layer. As an example performed the statistical analysis of the extreme temperatures variations in London. Presents graphic materials for statistical studies of the intensity fluctuations evolution of maximum and minimum daily temperatures over a more than 36 years period. Presents the forecast studies results of the warming expected rate up to 2067. Analyzes the integral and differential trends of the maximum and minimum temperatures evolution.

Introduction

Global climate change in urban areas of Earth in the last decade are under the scrutiny of the global scientific community and international and governmental environmental organizations [1-3].

The such studies recent results that performed by scientists at Pittsburgh, Madrid and Potsdam universities allowed them to come to the conclusion that heat waves like the one that was observed in Russia in the summer of 2010, after 30 years will cover a square four times as large.

And by the XXI century end it will suffer 85% of the land. 

If you do not take action now, then in the second half of the XXI century, the land area exposed to abnormally high temperatures, will increase by about 1% a year.

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Text: Michael Hlystunov and Zhanna Mogiljuk, National Research Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Center for Fundamental and Applied Research of the Construction Objects Reliability